Recent market tracking shows wholesale prices softening faster than retail listings. Current pricing trends are reflected in Black Book’s 2026 Market Insights reports, which track wholesale adjustments across segments.
Table 1 – 2026 Wholesale vs Retail Price Changes (Year to Date)
Month | Wholesale Change | Retail Change | Spread
January | -1.2% | -0.5% | 0.7%
February | -0.9% | -0.3% | 0.6%
March | -1.4% | -0.6% | 0.8%
April | -1.1% | -0.4% | 0.7%
May | -1.6% | -0.8% | 0.8%
What this shows:
• Wholesale prices are adjusting downward faster
• Retail sellers are slower to reduce pricing
• The gap remains consistently between 0.6% and 0.8%
That spread may look small. It is not.
On a $32,000 vehicle, a 0.8% pricing gap equals $256 difference. Across valuation models and claims, those differences compound quickly.
Why Insurance Companies Prefer Wholesale Data
Insurance carriers often rely on wholesale auction data because:
• It is lower
• It reflects dealer acquisition cost
• It minimizes payout exposure
This valuation approach is often challenged in independent reviews, as explained in why insurance valuation methods frequently undervalue vehicles.
But retail pricing reflects what consumers are actually paying.
If a total loss settlement is calculated strictly using wholesale adjustments while the replacement market operates closer to retail, the policyholder absorbs the difference.
For a deeper look at how market pricing affects diminished value calculations, see the recent analysis on used car pricing behavior in 2026 from Black Book Market Insights.
Stabilization Does Not Mean Predictability
While 2026 volatility is lower than 2022–2024, pricing still shifts monthly.
Table 2 – Segment Level Wholesale Adjustments (Q1 2026)
Segment | Q1 Wholesale Change | Retail Reaction
Electric Vehicles | -6.8% | Slow adjustment
Luxury Sedans | -5.1% | Moderate adjustment
Full-Size Trucks | -2.4% | Stable retail
Compact SUVs | -3.7% | Mild reduction
Hybrids | -4.2% | Gradual adjustment
EVs remain the most volatile segment. Luxury continues to correct. Trucks remain relatively stable.
Appraisal methodology must reflect segment-specific movement rather than applying uniform depreciation assumptions.
The Risk of Using Delayed Market Data
When pricing gaps exist:
• Total loss valuations can be understated
• Diminished value calculations can ignore segment pressure
• Negotiation leverage shifts toward carriers
Independent appraisals incorporate both wholesale and retail realities, rather than relying exclusively on auction averages.
Market normalization in 2026 means spreads are smaller than peak volatility years, but they still matter.
Even a 1% miscalculation can translate into hundreds or thousands of dollars in claim discrepancies.
What This Means for Vehicle Owners in 2026
If your vehicle was declared a total loss or involved in a diminished value claim:
• Ask which data source was used
• Confirm valuation date alignment
• Compare retail listing data
• Verify segment-level adjustments
Policyholders facing valuation disputes often consult Total Loss Appraisals for independent settlement review and market verification.
Wholesale normalization is a trend, not a guarantee of fairness.
Accurate appraisal in 2026 requires live market awareness, segment analysis, and correct data interpretation.
Final Takeaway
The 2026 used car market is stabilizing. But the wholesale vs retail gap remains meaningful.
Insurance carriers often default to lower wholesale benchmarks. Retail markets move differently.
The difference between those two numbers can directly impact your settlement.
In a normalized market, precision matters more than ever.
